Jupiter says that online content sales will rise from $1.5 billion in 2002 to $2.0 billion in 2003.

Jupiter didn’t define online conent in their public statements: “The $2.0 billion forecasted for paid content spending is fragmented across over a dozen categories ranging from news to sports to health to adult content, making it difficult for any one company to collect a significant share of that spending.”

Without further detail, it’s impossible to compare that number to the Online Publishers Association number of $1.3 billion in content sales in 2003. The OPA didn’t include adult content and Jupiter may not have included services and personals.

“For at least the next 18 to 24 months, most online media companies should generate 60% to 70% of their revenues from advertising.” says Jupiter analyst David Card. That average confuses the issue, probably by including some sites and sources that shouldn’t be lumped into the average. I estimate that non-adult online publishers are getting less than 10% of their revenue from content sales.
UPDATE: David Card tells me in email that their number does include such services as personals and greeting cards. Also, they put pornography at less than $250 million/year, with little growth.