Categories
Analysis

Push done right

RSS aggregation is push done right. Remember push? I wasted six months of my life, despite my better judgement and protestations, working on it.
Why does RSS look like a winner?

  • It’s decentralized. You serve your own pages and don’t need anyone’s permission to do it.
  • It’s HTML-based. You don’t have to worry about proprietary formats.
  • It’s lightweight. No one is moving lots of graphics or attempting to “change the online (or desktop) experience”.
  • It’s grassroots. One of the reasons for the explosion of interest in weblogs is that RSS aggregation makes it possible to for readers to scan sites for interesting items in the tenth of the time it would take to read the same sites in their browsers.
  • It gives power to the reader. The premise of push was that publisher would have more control of your online experience. RSS aggregation makes it possible for the reader to control his own experience.

In other words, RSS aggregation (we need a better word for it) is everything that push was not.

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Uncategorized

SprintPCS comes to its senses

SprintPCS has finally acknowledged the idiocy of their per-megabyte pricing for wireless web access and established a flat rate. This should drive their competitors in this direction.
Wireless Net access on computers is a huge growth market that the mobile carriers have ignored because they still think of the Internet as in enhancement for cell phones, like text messaging.

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Research

Online advertising to increase 10% in 2003, especially ads that suck

Jupiter says online advertising will be up 10% next year. They’re especially enthusiastic about online classifieds, which they peg at about a billion dollars. They’re not optimistic about prospects for increasing CPM’s anytime soon.
UPDATE [10/26]: Emarketer has an excellent roundup of Internet advertising numbers, with a positive forecast for the fourth quarter.
That is, of course, unless AOL restates their earnings again and wipes out the increase all by themselves.
Elsewhere, Jupiter is predicting that rich media will be about a quarter of online advertising in five years. I still don’t understand where this groundswell of interest in rich media is coming from. Eyeblaster’s PR team is earning their money, because I’m seeing their name on a lot of these stories. This idea has been around since the dawn of Flash. This trend could be bad for Macromedia, as more people discover that Flash is now used almost exclusively for ads and should treated like any other virus.

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Analysis

Defacing the commons

Advertising giant David Ogilvy made the most persuasive case against billboards. His simple thesis was that advertising should represent a bargain between the audience and the advertiser: “I’ll subsidize this news/information/entertainment/event for you if you’ll agree to accept some advertising from me.”
Billboards violate this bargain. There is no bargain. The audience is forced to view the ad and receive nothing in return.
The NY Times says that Nike and ABC have been defacing public sidewalks with advertising. IBM did this awhile back in the US and Australia. The worst excess of the dot-com years in San Francisco was a boat that towed a billboard on San Francisco bay–defacing on the most beautiful views on earth with their commercial message.
UPDATE 10/26:Microsoft is defacing public streets. You’d think having control of most people’s desktops would be enough.
It’s time to re-read Ogilvy. His belief in intelligent communication with the audience and establishing a bargain with them is sorely missed in the current marketing climate.

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Analysis

Making the Web more like TV, Part III

Atomfilms.com, BMW, and AOL are all producing video for the Web, and USA Today is hailing it as evidence of “renewed interest in watching original entertainment on PC screens” and that “consumers are willing to pay for things now.”
First, this is evidence that the dream of turning the Web into TV persists in certain corporations, not among users.
Second, it’s evidence that consumers are still unwilling to pay for the privilege of having this done to them. Both BMW and AOL are giving the content away as a premium to grab consumers’ attention. It’ll be interesting to see if we’re willing to take it for free.

Categories
News

Direct Marketing Association: "Just try and say no."

In a reversal of its historic position Direct Marketing Association now favors anti-spam laws, which I guess is progress. But since the DMA is now promoting direct email marketing, what they really want are laws that make the Net safe for themselves. I am proud to have made a living in direct marketing, but I also believe the DMA is yielding to its sleazier instincts.
According to Declan McCullagh in News.com, the DMA wants to overrule the existing laws in 20 states, prohibit only forged headers, and make opt-out the maximum protection under federal law. Does that mean you have to opt out of mail from each of their 4,700 members?
Jerry Cerasale, the DMA’s vice president for government affairs, says “We’re finding that we need to give the consumers the choice to try and allow them to control their inbox, to try and say no, I don’t want this, while leaving the medium open for commerce,” Cerasale said.
That’s what he said: “Just try and say no.”

Categories
Research

Internet advertising is down 22% for the first half

According to the Internet Advertising Bureau, Internet advertising was down in the second quarter by 4.1%. But the first half is 22% below the first half of 2001.
Keyword-based search ads grew from 3 percent to 9 percent of ad spending, and “niche ad formats” (i.e. “rich media”) grew from 9 percent to 12 percent of overall revenues.
Top categories:
computing 19%
financial services 14%
media 12%
telecom 7%
These are categories that mostly sold by direct marketing, instead of brand advertising. It’s another indication that the current mini-trend toward to rich media is a move in the wrong direction.
Online advertising is highly concentrated. The top ten media outlets took in 76 percent of all revenues, and the top 50 got 97 percent. Most media sites are not in the top 50. How are they going to pay the bills?

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Analysis

A challenge to Michael Powell: let's see some real competition

A Letter to FCC Chairman Michael Powell: Support “Fail Fast” makes a compelling case for letting big telcos fail. They’re victims of their own poor strategy and witless management, and they won’t be missed. To prop them up is to condemn us all to a future of poor technology, continued monopoly practices, stifled innovation, and massive public expense. It would also be a betrayal of the administration’s avowed commitment to free enterprise, perhaps the only traditional GOP value the Republican party still espouses.
The site also features a lot of great links to information on what end-to-end networking is and why it should be the future of telecommunications.

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Analysis

AOL is losing advertising market share

AOL expects ad sales to be down 41% from last year, despite the fact that the overall ad market is recovering and that their biggest competitors are increasing their online ad revenues. In the third quarter, the online advertising is up 15%, ESPN.com is up over 10%, WSJ.com up 24%, Yahoo is up 22%, and the NYTimes.com is up 30%. Lower prices and the opportunity to reach people at work are among the reasons cited.
AOL is down because they are no longer able to muscle big advertisers and aspiring brands into buying big packages. No doubt they’re also compensating for some of their earlier absurdist accounting. The Washington Post has an excellent article about AOL/TW’s failure to achieve synergy, and how many executives in the two companies doubted it was possible.
The good news is that this may signal a more subscriber-friendly AOL in the future as they come to realize who’s really paying the bills.

Categories
Analysis

Making the Web more like print, Part I

There’s article on poynter.org about the Akron Beacon-Journal’s new PDF edition, comparing it favorably to the BJ’s crappy Knight-Ridder-created website. The author’s take is that if you don’t have the resources to produce a great web site, maybe you should sell PDF’s to your readers.
PDF is great for electronically distributing documents created for print, but that’s about it. Because it was designed for translating print documents, it has none of the benefits of real HTML. Adobe denies Acrobat is still a roach motel, which data enters but cannot escape. They now prefer to think of it as a “big container for doing things.” Oh, I see.
Publishers like PDF because it gives them the illusion of control over the presentation and distribution of their content, coupled with the apparent cheapness of printing to file, instead of distributing off a content management system. But it does not compensate the reader for everything he loses. And what’s the point of a cheap, controllable production system that your readers don’t want?