Netflix: operations trumps usability

I love Netflix. I’ve been using it less than a month and I don’t think I’ll ever set foot in a video store again. Netflix is so good at what it does that it is able to overcome the lousiness of its Web site.

It’s a better way to rent movies. You tell them what movies you want to see. For $20 a month, you can have three movies checked out at any time, and they send you new DVD’s as you return the ones you’re viewing.

This has a lot of advantages, starting with the elimination of multi-day rental charges and late fees. Then there’s elimination of trips to the video store to rent and return DVD’s. Finally it helps me avoid seizing up when I can’t find the one or two movies I came to the store to rent. Oh, and it helps to have more information about the film than the blurbs on the box.

Their operations are brilliant. Their custom mailer doubles as a paid return envelope. They email you when they receive your returns and when they ship a DVD to you, so you know what’s coming. The whole thing is designed to be fast and inexpensive.

But their web site is awful. I’ve rated 40 films on the site, but Netflix’s Recommendations link returns an empty page. You can’t search for films by director. Their “Critics’ Picks” are awkward to browse. Their links to related films are unimaginative. The cumulative effect is that it’s really difficult to find films to add to your rental queue.

This is surprising because this is not a difficult design problem and it has been solved at least twice. I have no idea why Netflix hasn’t learned from IMDB or reel.com how to design a movie Web site.

I don’t doubt that a better site would improve their bottom line, but Netflix’s grassroot success is a lesson for us all. Even when the Web is your only presence in the market, getting the operations right is absolutely critical.

There isn't an online publishing business model…

There isn’t an online publishing business model, says Vin Crosbie, there are manyonline publishing business models.

That’s absolutely correct. I’d go a step further and say there isn’t a single print business model, either. Vin seems to be saying that business publications can charge for subscriptions, and that consumer books cannot (or not very much, anyway).

However, there are plenty of great business publications who give away subscriptions to either 100% of their readers in order to have maximum coverage of a desirable market (CIO magazine), or give away a certain percentage of subscriptions to very important readers (like CEO’s) and sell themselves dear to lesser mortals (Forbes).

There are also plenty of consumer magazines who either charge close to full price for subscriptions (The New Yorker sometimes) or rely primarily on undiscounted newsstand sales (People).

In other words, there isn’t a single online publishing business model because there isn’t a single print publishing business model.

Balance-sheet pricing retards SMS in the US

The mobile carriers’ balance-sheet pricing and ignorance of network economics have made SMS a non-starter in the US.

SMS messaging hasn’t taken off in the United States because, according to The Economist, (1) better alternatives (land-line calls, mobile calls, instant messages) are available at flat rates, (2) the mobile carriers resisted connecting their SMS networks, (3) the mobile carriers’s have overpriced SMS-capable phones, encouraging their customers to hang on to their old phones. [Thanks Marketingfix]

As long as the mobile carriers base their pricing on debts they incurred in the nineties and not on what they cost to deliver or what they’re worth, they’re going to retard the development of the mobile Internet in the US. By they time they (or their receivers) wake up to the what’s happening, the wireless nearlynet will own the market.

The NY Times takes back its archives

The NY Times has every right to charge for their old stories, but I wish they hadn’t.

I’ve been collecting links for a couple of weeks in preparation for a series of posts on media and the broadband access monopolies. It turns out that the Times moved a bunch of really useful stories behind the barrier. If you want to read them, they’ll cost $2.95 each, which I doubt you’re willing to pay.

I think most publishers would get a higher NPV if they just gave their archives away, but the Times is a special case — at least in 2003. I’ll be more careful in the future about linking to them in the future. The SF Chronicle’s Gate doesn’t charge (for now), so I’ll try to give them a little more link action.

Uncertainty is as bad as pessimism

IDC has lowered its forecast for IT growth in 2003 because of increasing uncertainty about the economy.

I conducted a survey of CIO’s back in August and found them to be fairly optimistic about 2003 spending. But clearly we still have no idea what’s going to happen and no one’s going to spend money in that kind of environment.

“The outlook for the next six months continues to be extremely volatile and a double-dip IT recession can’t be ruled out in a worst-case scenario. But the fundamental drivers remain solid,” said Stephen Minton, director of IDC’s Worldwide IT Markets group. “Once the fog of war has cleared, there will be a gradual recovery in corporate profits and business confidence, and this will translate into increased IT spending. We expect to see improved market conditions in every region in 2004. And by 2006, the global IT market will generate $1 trillion in revenues.”

In other words, someday we’ll get past this, but we’re not sure when.

Bloggers more popular than real journalists in Lawrence, Kansas

On Lawrence.com, the blogs are more popular than the content created by the pros. This is the kind of site that the dailies keep talking about, but not creating: tons of information on local bands, mp3’s, venues, concerts, restaurants, bars, and … blogs! And it’s published by the Lawrence Journal-World.

Until last week, I only knew Lawrence, Kansas as the setting of the nuclear war TV movie The Day After. Then I saw Rob Curley present Lawrence.com at the New Media Conference at Berkeley and was impressed with the site. Lawrence is a college town with a thriving local music scene and Lawrence.com does a remarkable job of laying it all out.

Is site registration based on a fundamental marketing error?

More and more online publishers are requiring users to register if they want to read content. Adrian Holovaty correctly points out that if you don’t do it well, site registration is an invitation to fraud, but Jay Small counters that eventually we’ll learn how to do it and readers will accept it.

In my opinion, demographics (even when they’re correct) are usually the wrong way to target online advertising.

Demographics are almost always proxy for something else. You may believe that the most likely user for your product is a woman between the ages of 25 and 44, but what you’re really looking for is anyone who might want to use your product. It’s just more efficient to buy magazines and TV shows that are viewed by women 25 to 44.

On the Web, you can target users by context and behavior. That’s a lot more powerful than demographics and it’s the reason why Overture and Google are changing the way we think about Internet advertising.

Booz Allen and Neilsen//NetRatings, in an article titled “Seize the Occasion! The Seven-Segment System for Online Marketing“, say:

The focus on demographics — the outward and visible signs of inward attitudes — grew more out of marketers’ need for analytical criteria than out of any inherent link between a person’s demographics and shopping behaviors.

But this approach simply applies traditional marketing methods to the e-world, without exploiting the Web’s unique strengths. The abysmal performance of targeted banner advertising on Internet portal sites, where click-through rates today average 0.1 to 0.2 percent, underscores the failure of this conventional wisdom.

Wherein lies the flaw? An exclusive study by the Digital Customer Project, an alliance between Booz-Allen & Hamilton and Nielsen//NetRatings Inc., shows that the most effective segmentation scheme for online consumers first groups them by their individual behavior at a point in time, not by demographics or psychographics, or even by aggregate online behavior.

There is also an excellent interview with one of the authors at AvantMarketer. Both the article and the interview are a little long-winded for my taste, but the point that demographics is a lousy way to target Internet advertising is dead-on.

The importance of being good enough, but no better

A couple of recent articles made me realize the importance of being good enough, but no better.

David Weinberger has a great note on the battle between those who want to make the underlying structure of the web more…structured, and those who see the advantage of the current markup mess.

Dave points out that it is precisely that inattention to well-formed and formal syntax that made the Web a runaway hit with people who were more interested in publishing than in coding. In the very early days of the Web, SGML veterans detested the sloppy HTML we were all writing. The early versions of Netscape were notoriously forgiving of bad HTML and we all benefited:

I mean, if the early browsers only read well-formed and valid HTML, the Web would be far neater, one-thousandth the size, and lifeless.

Meanwhile, Clay Shirky has yet another excellent essay, this time on the tension between “the [vision of the Net] everyone wants — ubiquitous and convenient — and the … the one we get — spotty and cobbled together.”

Clay’s point is that cheap and adequate networks nearly always offer better price/performance than expensive, optimized networks. And these networks can be incrementally optimized over time at a much lower, widely-distributed cost (and faster revenue ramp) than building the perfect network from scratch.

These “nearlynets” have the advantage that they are much less subject to abuse because they’re not owned by a single, inevitably large, investor/builder.

Balance-sheet-driven pricing and technology is suffocating mobile innovation

Mobile companies’ need for increased average revenue per user (ARPU) is likely to retard adoption of 3G technology, according to a new report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Microsoft.

Of course, the drive to increase ARPU is driven by carriers’ post-bubble balance sheets and not by the unproven value of 3G for consumers.

PWC and MS say that consumers in Britain are already concerned about the high cost of mobile calls, and the carriers’ pricing plans will double the cost for those who make the move to 3G. And that doesn’t include the GBP400 for the phones themselves.

This is the latest in the continuing struggle of mobile network operators’ to duplicate (and exploit) the growth of the Internet while eliminating the openness, choice, end-to-end philosophy, and low cost that made the Internet successful.

Free research: kids online and on mobile phones

Nora Paul distributed a list of research about kids online for last week’s New Media Conference at Berkeley. Two reports in particular were especially recent and interesting:

Connected to the Future is a report on children’s Internet use from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. It addresses, among other topics, use among underserved groups.

MobileYouth2003 covers marketing mobile products successfully to the Youth, from a European perspective