False pessimism, child of false optimism

Optimism is scarce at this year’s Agenda conference. The NYT story raises the question of whether the high-tech sector is a mature business. I guess that depends on the segment. PC’s and workstations are mature. Operating systems and application software are mature. Processors are mature. Networking and telecom equipment are in a depression right now, but are far from mature. Internet software is nowhere near mature and now might be the right time to re-examine this segment.
The story concludes with a killer quote that encapsulates the real problem:

“We’re in a real technology gridlock,” said Peter Schwartz, co-founder and chairman of the Global Business Network, a consulting group based in Emeryville, Calif. “All of the entrenched industries are attempting to protect their positions so that in broadband, digital television and digital distribution of content, we’re stuck.”

…and the legislative and executive branches of the government are further entrenching these interests under the banner of sparking growth — having exactly the opposite effect of what they claim they’re trying to do.