ComScore's sampling problem

We have a few more details on ComScore Media Metrix’s recent restatement of their at-work measurements, thanks to the Internet Advertising Report.

First, ComScore acquired Media Metrix’s sample, but not its software. Second, ComScore was combining two samples collected by very different means (telephone and email recruitment), and combining two very different measuring systems (end-user and proxy server based) at the same time it was expanding its sample.

Without the tracking software, ComScore incorporated its own server-based measuring system with the November 2002 release of Media Metrix 2.0.

In addition to the 50,000 home Internet users recruited via Random Digital Dial sampling methodology, Media Metrix 2.0 expanded its measurement panel to 120,000, including 35,000 samples of at-work and university users.

No wonder there were some problems with their numbers.

On war

I’ve tried to avoid political and personal posts on this site, mainly because I’m trying to focus it. But current events are so pressing that I don’t believe it’s a moral decision not to declare yourself. I don’t know whether we should attack Iraq or not, but I do believe that we have subverted the Constitution before and after the last election and in the months following September 11, 2002.

In any event I found the following thought-provoking and insightful.

What's above your fold?

Mercury News pageLess then 10% of this page from the San Jose Mercury News contains news. (click for a full-size view: I lightened the non-news elements for greater visibiliity). The remainder is advertising, logos, navigation, house ads, and unchanging content (e.g. the stock chart).
I was pretty tough on Jakob Nielsen’s awful pie chart showing how much space each page element occupies. But he’s right to raise this issue. Jay Small raises this issue in his newsletter, taking on all the mandatory elements that bubble up from various parts of the publishing enterprise. Meanwhile, Nathan Ashby-Kuhlman says you must be able to deliver your content in multiple layouts, and that this should be a necessary feature of any decent content management system if you’re going to communicate what’s new about the news.

Waiting for curly quotes

Ross Rader is right. Our current tools for producing content are inadequate for creating proper quotes, apostrophes, and other punctuation. This stuff should not require my attention to be correctly.

I have already confessed I’m using stupid (non-curly) quotes on MediaSavvy. I looked at SmartyPants and thought it was cool, until I contemplated installing a Moveable Type plug-in and modifying all my templates. Besides, I don’t believe the tags are the place this stuff should be fixed. I want my tools (this month it’s BBEdit, NetNewswire, and Moveable Type) to deal with this stuff natively. We’re not there yet.

I also agree that, in the larger scheme of things, this aesthetic consideration is a pretty small gripe. What’s amazing is how good (and cheap) these tools are.

Why not tell the public?

The normally indispensible Declan McCullagh is just plain wrong when equates the move to require the labeling rights-impaired media and electronics wiith the move to require copy impairment be built into media and electronics.

To justify his claim that it’s always wrong to involve the government in a crusade for rights, he trots out experts from the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute. Apparently the American Enterprise Institute was busy this morning.

I don’t know of labeling is a good idea or not (it seems like a step in the right direction), but Declan’s argument is unconvincing. The beauty of requiring labeling of copy-impaired products is that it imposes no obligation other than telling the truth and give consumers the opportunity to exercise their own judgment about whether to buy them. That sounds like a market-oriented solution to me.

The problem of Web ratings

Today, Comscore confessed that its numbers for last fall are wrong. The principal source of the problem was its estimate of at-work use. At-work use is notoriously difficult to measure.
But the Times hints at a bigger problem with web site ratings: what are they for?
When advertisers are paying by the exposure, or even the click or the sale, is it really important which site is number one?
When advertisers are (properly) more focused on response than branding, and when its so easy to test a campaign on the Net, is it really important what the demographics of a site are?
The Times tells us some alarming things about differences between the services:

  • Comscore has cut its estimate of the time users spend on some sites by as much as 75%
  • Comscore and Nielsen use radically different methods for sampling at-work users (email vs. random-digit-dial)
  • ComScore says Yahoo had 107 million users in the United States in December. Nielsen says it was 81 million.
  • ComScore measures usage on college campuses and Nielsen does not, but this is not enough to account for the difference in the Yahoo numbers.

Web advertising must be conducted like direct marketing and not like broadcast. Overreliance on ratings is malpractice.

Text must (and can) transcend ASCII

Daring Fireball makes the case (if one needed to be made) for gracing the Web with real typography and the use of such non-ASCII characters as curly quotes and em dashes.

Proper typographic punctuation is 400-year-old news. That it’s considered exotic, or even non-standard, on today’s web is embarrassing. The solution isn’t for everyone to limit themselves to the same character set used on 1970’s-era VT-100 terminals. The solution is for software developers to write smarter software. Every day more web sites are starting to use smart punctuation, making sites that don’t — and the software behind them — look bad.

I haven’t been able to meet my typographic ideal yet with MediaSavvy, but it’s a medium-term goal for this site, once I get the content and focus where it needs to be. But, after reading The Elements of Typographic Style (an amazing book), I’m ready to polish this site’s design.

The 400 years of typographic tradition have (unconsciously) conditioned our readers to conventions that we flout at our peril.

Raleigh discovers the Internet

According to Nielsen//NetRatings [“The extra slash is for slashing prices!”] Raleigh, NC’s active at home online population grew 29% from January 2002 to January 2003, and Nashville and Sacramento grew by 19%. That seems…implausible.

N//NR continues:

The fastest growing local market experienced some big shifts in income levels over the past year. In Raleigh, the number of people with at home Internet access reporting a household income of $75,000 to $99,999 a year increased by 72 percent (see Table 2) from January 2002 to January 2003. Other high-income groups online grew as well with the $100,000 to $149,999 income bracket growing eight percent and the wealthiest bracket of $150,000 to $999,999 moving up 17 percent. By contrast the lowest household income bracket for those with at home Internet access saw its active online audience decrease by 26 percent.

“Raleigh has experienced major growth in high income households that have Internet access over the past year,” said Bloom “This will make it a prime regional target for marketers looking to push big ticket items like luxury cars and appliances.”

This recommendation would be wrong even if the data were correct, which I doubt. Wouldn’t it make more sense to target your ads to markets with the greatest concentration of affluent customers and not the fastest growth?

Enemies of liberty

One of the greatest dangers of consolidation and corporate control of the Net is that it creates a choke-point for government control.

Pennsylvania is using it to keep Internet users from accessing a class of forbidden sites. In this case it’s kiddie porn. Kiddie porn and terrorism are the stalking-horses for control of our lives and liberty.

The Homeland Security Act apparently has a provision that illegalizes model rocket engines. The choke-point? UPS and other carriers are refusing to handle them.

Speaking of choke-points, I want to gag every time I hear the phrase “enemies of liberty“. Search for it on Google News and see what you get. I got quotes from George W. Bush, John Ashcroft, and Oliver North — enemies of liberty indeed.

Is Jakob Nielsen losing it?

WebWord has an great discussion of Jakob Nielsen’s latest screed — “Homepage Real Estate Allocation“. The consensus seems to be that he hasn’t had a new idea since the nineties and that he’s more concerned with selling books and seminars than on increasing usability.

Jakob is a force for good on the Web and it’s hard to argue with the idea that most home pages have too little information on them. But his ruthlessly reductionist approach ignores design as a source of humanity and pleasure as well as information. As Adam Greenfield says, “Poor Jakob. What a cold universe he must occupy.”

Finally, Jakob illustrates this piece with a pie chart, the worst information graphic in the known universe. I defy you to guess the absolute or relative sizes of the OS, Navigation, and Content slices in Jakob’s chart without refering to the the text.