Category: Analysis

Back in the day, Minitel represented the online future. France built a nationwide online network back in the early eighties, when very few people had PC’s and 300 baud modems cost $300.

I was surprised to find out that Minitel still exists and can be accessed over the Net with an emulator.

The BBC story above points out some important lessons we learned (and are still learning) from Minitel: social applications of networks are far more powerful than “information at your fingertips”, a ubiquitous low-overhead infrastructure for small payments is essential if you want to sell information, communication revolutions may not always translate from one country to another, and it’s hard for mere obsolescence to kill a successful network

IDC says that the market for content management services will grow from $4 billion to $7.5 billion in next five years. To keep that in perspective, it’s about three times the size of the most optimistic estimate of the online content industry and about ten times that of a more realistic estimate.

Now, most of that content being managed by these services will never been seen by real people. It’s mostly corporate dross that’s now stored in Word, Excel, Notes, PDF, Quark, and other document and database files.

The current IT doldrums will keep this idea from gaining too much traction in the next year or so. But the problems of content management make customer relationship management look simple by comparison.

Content management may find itself caught between the database-oriented filesystem of Microsoft’s Longhorn OS at the low end and the infinite recursion of turning knowledge into data at the high end.

In his new, 24-page book, Ed Tufte takes on PowerPoint:

Alas, slideware often reduces the analytical quality of presentations. In particular, the popular PowerPoint templates (ready-made designs) usually weaken verbal and spatial reasoning, and almost always corrupt statistical analysis. What is the problem with PowerPoint? And how can we improve our presentations?

I pretty much hate PowerPoint. My previous employer required me to use it, along with some pretty awful templates and it made me miserable.

It’s great for showing graphs of data (although PowerPoint’s default graph styles suck audibly), illustrations (although its clip art appears to be scanned from Pennysaver), and the occasional Big Idea to large audiences. But the typical cascade of bullet points and long sentences in tiny type are mind-numbing.

PowerPoint also comes with a set of templates that are staggeringly amateurish, ugly, and distracting. Apple Keynote’s biggest advantage over Powerpoint is its simple, attractive templates that force presenters to focus on the content and not on dissolves and animations. I’m not sure that Presentations.com understands the core problems that plague Powerpoint when it says,

For presenters who need only basic slideshow-building functionality, Keynote is a nice program and a good alternative to Microsoft PowerPoint X. But advanced users will feel restricted. Apple does not offer much in its stock photo library, there are no interactivity features, such as buttons or links, and there are many nice-to-have features missing from the text, chart and multimedia areas – features that PowerPoint users have come to expect.

In the hands of someone who knows what they’re doing, PowerPoint can produce great results. I’ve seen wonderful PowerPoint presentations by Paul Saffo and Larry Lessig. But these guys are brilliant and could get great results with a whiteboard. The rest of us are more likely to shoot ourselves in the foot.

I haven’t been enthusiastic about challenge-response spam blocking because I think that it’s an unreasonable burden to put on strangers and friends of friends who want to do talk to me but don’t plan to sell me something. This is also a major annoyance to strangers who reply to a message I sent them. Others have raised the concern that the challenges Mailblocks generate look a lot like spam themselves.

But my current spam filters have been failing lately because a lot more spam is personally addressed to me. So, I wrote filter that looks up the sender and if they’re not in my address book it flags them as “spam?” and moves them to a folder where I can check them out later.

It seems to work pretty well, and it keeps the burden off spam enforcement off my correspondents, where it never belonged. I’m not saying it’s sufficient. It’s just a better solution to the specific problem addressed by challenge-response.

Here’s my stupid question: If this is a better, cheaper (free), unpatentable, and far-simpler solution than challenge-response spam filters, is challenge-response a business at all?

Brad Templeton asks Why does it make sense to penalize ISP’s for hosting spammers when most of us would recoil from penalizing them for cutting off users for any of the following

a) Run Gnutella or other P2P software
b) Have a NAT box
c) Have an open wireless LAN
d) Host a web site with indecent material
e) Host a web site with unpleasant political views
f) Host a file which is allegedly a copyright infringement
g) Post messages allegedly violating the copyrights of the Church of Scientology

I’m not entirely sure I agree with Brad about this, but he made me think.

It’s important to make distinctions. One is that copyright holders like the RIAA and the Church of Scientology already have the law on their side and don’t need the help of ISP’s. Another is that there’s a difference between arbitrarily limiting customer’s access to the Net to squeeze more profit out of them and another to refuse to profit from spam.

There’s also a distinction between enforcing limits on the content of a message and the manner in which it is delivered. Sending a message to millions of people who didn’t ask for it and didn’t want it is wrong regardless of the content of the message.

Joe Flint, in the Wall Street Journal, writes that if cable systems sold networks a la carte, prices wouldn’t go down and a lot of niche networks would be killed off. I think he’s wrong on both counts.

Supporters of a la carte billing like Sen. McCain and FCC’s Mr. Martin are well-intentioned — they want to lower consumers’ cable bills and stop forcing subscribers to pay for services they don’t use. While that might sound like a good idea, the reality is such a move likely would have the opposite effect: Cable bills would increase, while programming choices would shrink, hurting both consumers and the industry. That’s because pooling a big group of specialty channels into one cable package effectively lowers the cost of offering all the channels.

Bundled pricing allows everyone to make consumers pay for things they don’t want. Cable monopolies cross-subsidize their own networks. Owners of popular networks force their dogs onto the systems. Owners of desireable content (e.g. sports) demand prices out of line with their value to consumers because they increase the value of the bundle.

Ideally, unbundling networks would be accompanied by regulations forbidding cable operators from investing networks. This would give them the economic incentive to meet customers’ needs directly. But even if that weren’t done, unbundled pricing would improve cable content and prices.

It’s impossible to know what would happen if cable networks were unbundled. That’s one reason free markets work and why they scare monopolies. But here’s what I think would happen.

A lot of really lousy channels that are on the system because they’re owned by the operator, or are a forced buy with a valuable network, would get dumped because no one wants them.

Sports content owners would be forced charge prices more in line with their real value to consumers, lowering costs for cable operators.

Cable operators would begin looking for programming to fill the empty channels on their system, or to produce more revenue than existing networks. The availability of revenue from real consumers will stimulate the creation of new networks to serve their needs. The need to compete with existing providers in the primary categories will stimulate new providers to either differentiate themselves or cut their costs.

But one thing is certain. It’s impossible for cable programming to be more expensive or any worse.

Today my cell phone rang. I checked to see who it was and it came from area code 666. Yikes, a call from The Beast!

Indeed it was. My carrier, SprintPCS, was calling me to sell me features. When I told them not to call me at this number to sell me stuff, I was told they weren’t trying to sell me anything, but to inform me of services they were offering.

This is another indication that business has carved out too much latitude for themselves in current privacy and telemarketing rules. Take a look at your bank, credit card, telco or other big company privacy statement. They pretty much reserve the right to pimp your privacy to anyone they please as long as they have a relationship with you and the john is “an affiliate”.

This is also more evidence that your phone number doesn’t belong to you.

Legitimate marketers use images in HTML mail to track how many people open the message. Spammers use them to verify addresses. Hotmail is now giving users the option of turning off images from senders who are not in their address book.

Legitimate marketers don’t like this one bit. InternetNews.com quotes one legitimate marketer who is clueless about why anyone would want this:

“If the objective of adding this feature is to reduce spam, it’s going to fail,” said Al DiGuido, chief executive of e-mail marketing firm Bigfoot Interactive. “We don’t think that any feature in or itself will end the [spam] problem.”

The direct marketing industry has dragged its feet at every step to limit their ability to sent us whatever they please whenever they please. I’ve been writing about this for years. Their unwillingness to help consumers address the spam problem will eventually make email useless as a marketing medium. And they will have only themselves to blame.

Lawrence Lessig has an excellent report from Australia on the course of media deregulation and consolidation in the land down under the thumb of Rupert Murdoch. The key paragraph describes the tipping point beyond which resistance is futile:

Once media concentration is allowed to creep past a certain point you are in trouble. The media owners can push for more concentration due to the fact that they control public opinion via TV and print media.

Australia is a very different environment in many ways, and probably calls for a solutions to media concentration. But most of what has happened there is basic economics and politics.