A challenge to Michael Powell: let's see some real competition

A Letter to FCC Chairman Michael Powell: Support “Fail Fast” makes a compelling case for letting big telcos fail. They’re victims of their own poor strategy and witless management, and they won’t be missed. To prop them up is to condemn us all to a future of poor technology, continued monopoly practices, stifled innovation, and massive public expense. It would also be a betrayal of the administration’s avowed commitment to free enterprise, perhaps the only traditional GOP value the Republican party still espouses.
The site also features a lot of great links to information on what end-to-end networking is and why it should be the future of telecommunications.

AOL is losing advertising market share

AOL expects ad sales to be down 41% from last year, despite the fact that the overall ad market is recovering and that their biggest competitors are increasing their online ad revenues. In the third quarter, the online advertising is up 15%, ESPN.com is up over 10%, WSJ.com up 24%, Yahoo is up 22%, and the NYTimes.com is up 30%. Lower prices and the opportunity to reach people at work are among the reasons cited.
AOL is down because they are no longer able to muscle big advertisers and aspiring brands into buying big packages. No doubt they’re also compensating for some of their earlier absurdist accounting. The Washington Post has an excellent article about AOL/TW’s failure to achieve synergy, and how many executives in the two companies doubted it was possible.
The good news is that this may signal a more subscriber-friendly AOL in the future as they come to realize who’s really paying the bills.

Making the Web more like print, Part I

There’s article on poynter.org about the Akron Beacon-Journal’s new PDF edition, comparing it favorably to the BJ’s crappy Knight-Ridder-created website. The author’s take is that if you don’t have the resources to produce a great web site, maybe you should sell PDF’s to your readers.
PDF is great for electronically distributing documents created for print, but that’s about it. Because it was designed for translating print documents, it has none of the benefits of real HTML. Adobe denies Acrobat is still a roach motel, which data enters but cannot escape. They now prefer to think of it as a “big container for doing things.” Oh, I see.
Publishers like PDF because it gives them the illusion of control over the presentation and distribution of their content, coupled with the apparent cheapness of printing to file, instead of distributing off a content management system. But it does not compensate the reader for everything he loses. And what’s the point of a cheap, controllable production system that your readers don’t want?

Employment classified: newspapers' insurmountable opportunity

Online employment sites are a disgrace. I know a little about this business, because I built one of the earliest sites: Mercury Center’s Talent Scout.
This is the area of the greatest threat (and opportunity) for newspapers.
This is a market in flux, and cursory review of the any of the biggest job sites reveals they have not changed significantly since 1996. These sites are still far too hard to use and to customize, the job application process is flawed and there is little feeback, their databases are dirty and there is no connection to employers’ own internal or external databases, it’s too hard to get properly-formatted resumes to employers, the sites don’t learn from users’ searches and return too many irrelevant results, no one is using XML and RSS syndication to move information between job seekers and employers — and that’s just off the top of my head.
It’s hard to believe this is the biggest-money segment of online advertising.
Monster and Yahoo’s HotJobs are extemely vulnerable to new competition. But the newspapers’ own blessed partner — Careerbuilder — is out of the race, with half the market share of the number two Hot Jobs

Disrupting the newspaper

I think I was too hard on the new report by Borrell & Associates, based on initial coverage in Editor & Publisher. I should have known better.
Steve Outing does a great job of laying out the recommended strategy in a much longer piece in E&P. It really makes a lot of sense. Highlights of Steve’s piece:

  • Serve the needs of new advertisers who don’t advertise in the paper today because it doesn’t meet their needs or they can’t afford it.Three quarters of local companies don’t advertise with the local daily. Take advantage of the younger demographics of your online site to serve new advertisers.
  • Change the way you match ads to readers. Gather enough information about each reader to deliver the right ads. Don’t depend simply on where the ad appears — know who is looking at the page. Delivering the right ad to the right reader requires database and analysis skills.
  • Don’t simply move high-margin print classifieds to lower-margin online classifieds. Offer your advertisers new services. Invent new products to serve the needs of HR managers and real estate agents.
  • Focus more on making online a success and less on preserving print. Move responsibility for online from the local publisher to the corporate president. Over time, online is going to erode the print business. But the publisher will resist this low-margin trend as long as humanly possible, starving the online operation for resources and leaving the market open to new entrants. This is the the classic Innovator’s Dilemma scenario.

I strongly recommend reading Steve’s complete article.

iVillage continues to baffle me

I’ll be the first to admit I don’t understand iVillage’s business at all. The idea that of a web site that treats women as a niche market, when they’re pretty much half the Net, strikes me as a mistake. The fact that they’re a corporate shill for Hearst’s women’s magazines doesn’t help.
So, why would a company that’s struggling to make its core business work get into a completely different line of business? They might as well put their name on a line of vitamins. Ooops, they’re already doing that.